21 Oct 2008

The Happy Prisoner

I read Nick Carr's (whose book "The Big Switch" I highly recommend) post "The cost of First Click Free". In it, Nick writes about Googles First Click Free:

"First Click Free allows publishers that restrict access to their sites (to paying or registered customers) to give privileged access to visitors who arrive via a Google search. In essence, if you click on a Google search result you'll see the entire page of content (your first click is free) and you will only come up against the pay wall or registration screen if you try to look at a second page on the site."

Basically, this means that all those pages of content that we cannot access because of subscriptions we don't want to pay for, will now be partly (just a sneak peek) available, thanks to Google...

Nick argues, this is a a subtle form of lock-in:

"At the very least, First Click Free provides another boost to the web's centripetal force, as Google further strengthens the advantage that its dominance of search provides. Google doesn't like to think of itself as locking in users to its search engine, but if you get a privileged view of the web when you go through Google, isn't that, as Lenssen suggests, a subtle form of lock-in?"

What I fail to understand is this: how is this WORSE for me as a user? Stuff I COULD NOT have access to (cause there was no way I would ever pay up for) will now be partly accessible!

Its great for me as a user, as I have more information available...
Its great for the participating publishers, as they might generate more - subscription - sales through it...

...and NO-ONE FORCES me to either use Google or actually read all this new material...

So how is Google "locking me in"? Through a better user experience?

If the answer is "YES", then YEAH, I WANNA BE...

18 Oct 2008

Yo Henry!

Well, Henry Blodget is persistent!!

a) proving to us all why he does NOT work as an analyst anymore...

"In 2003, he was charged with securities fraud by the SEC and instead of fighting the allegations against him, decided to pay millions of dollars without admitting or denying the allegations. As part of the settlement, he was banned from the securities industry."

b) ridiculing himself for screaming all month long how Google was gonna miss its earnings...
c) obviously loosing his socks on "a rather nice trade"..

... the guy is now trying to convince his readers that Googles earnings just confirmed all his pathetic rantings about the company & its stock...

In a post titled "Google Stock Future: Dead Money", he really tries hard to come up with the following problems for Google:
  • Decelerating revenue
  • Maturing product cycle (search isn't new anymore, and Google has 70%+ global share)
  • No new products ready to pick up growth slack
  • Deteriorating economy

A three year old could put his "arguments" to shame, however Henry got ridiculed by his own readers!!!

Here's three examples:

pumper said:

very disagreed (especially on the dead money argument)

what's to be afraid? at this point, goog will never ever go down below 300, not with the rate at which they rack in cash. so the downside is completely protected.

& look at the positive side for potential mega upside:
1. recessionary environment is bad for grownup businesses but is
even worse for startups, which can potentially delay google killer for another couple years due to this. (and make no mistake, search business requires massive amount of IT spendings which makes it even harder to enter)
2. maturing product cycle (or the business model itself) only means even higher FCF margin from here.
3. goog apps racks in almost 500M last 3Qs and it's obviously ready to eat msft's lunch (potential market ~10B). isn't this trend very obvious to everyone already?
4. android will bring in new type of targeted ad gradually accepted by most users. chrome will be new internet platform a few years from now (rest assure this one is strategically important, not just another goog fad that Eric will let go).

so the bottom line: we see a clear bottom at $300ish but numerous potentials for huge upside for years to come... so which way are you placing your bet & what other stocks at current environment can give you even more assurance?

and finally, one big problem w/ "No new products ready to pick up growth slack" argument. we are not talking about aapl/msft/hpq here... internet search is itself a trend (& necessity) not a choice. so in fact, as long as goog keeps staying on top of their own game, they will just grow & racking in piles of cashes for a very very long time --- no newer & flasher products needed to drive growth, which is like what aapl has been struggling to do lately.

Jim Cramer 2.0 said:

Now correct me if i'm wrong. Does dead money mean you money won't grow?
If so, why say that in the title and then at the end say it's a good long term buy.
What's up with that shit bro?
Or am I wrong?

David said:
Strongly disagree.

This is not an analysis of GOOG's results but a totally biased opinion (to which, of course you're entitled) that could be applied to virtually any stock, in any circumstances.

jonathan franklin said:

Totally wrong.
Google is an advertising company that gives away so many free products that few people notice that in 5 years it will be among the world´s biggest advertising company.
"No New Products" says Henry B. That´s only because we cant´s
see the future. Besides Google has the cash to buy up great new ideas, i.e. YouTube.
So if they cant create new products, they buy them, remember Google Earth.....who else on earth coudl buy KeyHole sat photos and then give away the service first then build up a secondary biz on apps for Google Earth.

Thanx guys...

Yo Henry, why don't you quit trying to convince us you are an analysts, and try solving:

Booyakacha egghead!

Henry Blodget tries... He really does... He SWEARS he does!

Lately he put everything he's got into trying to convince the "google-free" world that Google was going to miss its estimates...

"The good news: Google has a better chance of surprising on the upside this quarter than last quarter, because expectations are so low. In fact, Wall Street analysts are openly calling for a miss. With Google's stock down to $315, this could lead to a nice short-term trade.

That said, even if the company clears a low bar, any hint that the tanking global economy is starting to bite the company (and how can it not?) will likely keep a lid on the stock over the next few months. Also, Street estimates for 2009 are still too high, in our opinion, and need to come down. It's hard to see how the stock rallies sustainably in the face of that."


What "could lead to a nice short-term trade"...

...suddenly changed to "Stock popped nicely in aftermarket"

Booyakacha egghead!

Ohh, and on an end note, let me give you another example of why should NEVER listen to this idiot...

"We don't expect a sustained rally in the stock, however until revenue growth stabilizes (i.e., stops decelerating). Anyone's guess when that will be, especially with Google having no new products in the pipeline.

No new products??

TV ads?
Banner ads (Doubleclick)?

Egghead? Still with us??

13 Oct 2008

I PISS on Vista

Its been almost a week since I posted anything, and for that I do apologize... One fine evening, I booted my Vista-running HP, and behold...

"missing or corrupt" blah blah blah..

To cut a (very) long story short:

a) Vista does not work anymore... it apparently killed my hard drive while dying...
b) H.P. is... "unable to help you Sir, but thanx for calling us... (oh, and regarding that 3 year warranty you bought for 250 dollars... WE CAN'T HELP YOU SUCKER!!!!)

So, I am forced to stay away from posting on the everyday anti-google-baloney... At least until I get a working copy of gOS (give me 2-3 days), OR until the new MacBooks arrive here...

Once again, sorry people..

6 Oct 2008

Farewell to a Crusader

This is a difficult day for me...
"winload.exe is missing or corrupt"
WTF? Vista should be BANNED from all computers ASAP...

But, thankfully, gOS came to the rescue, so here I am posting to you guys...

Today's post is... well strange. Over the past 2-3 weeks, which is the time that this blog is alive, I have commented on a number of people for their hatred & negative obsession about everything related to Google. Maybe they truly do hate the big G, or maybe (and I believe this is the case) they 'create' this hate because it just attracts more readers to their posts and articles, thus generating more revenue for them and their greedy bosses...

But while this kind of 'journalism' is fine for as long as everything around you is all roses, it is just not enough when the shit hits the fan...

Today, Nicholas Carlson (and 18 other people) of Valleywag, got fired. Nicholas was my favorite Crusader. Nearly all of his posts related to Google were dripping venom. It was almost like this guy was suffering from the worst kind of paranoia for the company... Everyone at Google was out to get him together with the rest of the free world!

While I honestly can't say that I will miss Nicholas' articles (quite the contrary...), I can't say I find pleasure in knowing someone (anyone) has lost his job. I can only hope and wish that Nicholas will soon manage to find another job, and cross my fingers that it won't have anything to do with Google.

On a more baloney-note, today was business as usual for Blodget, who once again pointed us all to the fact that Googles stock price is dropping NOT mainly because of a GLOBAL MARKET MELTDOWN, but because of well.... more important stuff... (!)

Oh, I almost forgot: he can't really understand (seriously, HIS own words: "Apple Stock Hammered...Why?" ) why is Apple's stock price falling like a rock too... Well, I sure as hell can understand his frustration...


3 Oct 2008

Amazing Stuff

I thought that today's anti-google-baloney would be difficult... Lots of stuff written out there, and its a hard job trying to identify the best (or rather... worst) of them...

But worry not, Mr. Arrington came to my rescue!

You know he loves bashing everything Google, right? And most of all Android, and its G1?

Well, his latest breathrough just hit my screen...

Apparently, a guy called Ulf Washbusch, who WAS up until recently a Product Marketing Manager for Google Mobile, is... trashing his ex-employer... and in particular the G1..

WOW! Michael! You just hit the jackpot! An ex-employee being nasty about the people who (probably) booted him??? AMAZING STUFF!

Apparently, Ulf has joined MySpace to run their mobile product operations... (good luck with this one!). Well, even Ballmer himself would immediately spot a not-so-nice-farewell from Google, through Ulfs ironies regarding the G1:

"it’s now available in Zune-brown along with white and black and the silly ‘with Google’ description on the back"

Whats next Michael, an interview with a...


2 Oct 2008

Listen all of y'all it's a sabotage

Clint Boulton, of Google Watch, posted "Did Google Sabotage Ringside Networks?" today. In this post, Clint examines (commenting on a previous post on the same story by Om Malik) some what Ringsides co-founder Bob Bickel had to say, on Ringsides closing...

In a few words, Bickel implies that Google (or rather a non-evil company...) offered to buy his company, then after 2-3 months changed its mind withdrawing the offer, which led to the closing...

"After dragging out the process for most of the summer, the non-evil company decided that they really did not want to acquire the company after all. Recommendation: always beware of wolves dressed as Grandma, they may be more like Microsoft than they admit."

By that time Ringside had used up all of our seed money. And by backing away from our Series A offers, we kind of burned the VCs. Even better, our development had stalled because of our desires to build stuff aligned with our new direction in the non-evil company."

Clints opinion on Bickels 'accusations' is this:

"It's possible Google is working on a similar piece of software and viewed Ringside as a threat. In which case, Google could have pretended to want SocialPass and led Ringside and its crew down the primrose path (thank you, "Ferris Bueller"), only to pull out and leave Ringside in the lurch...

We may never know what happened between Ringside and the non-evil company, but the demise of the company reminds us that nothing -- not even among philanthropic-seeming social software players -- is sacred in the cutthroat Web economy."

philanthropic-seeming social software players?? WHAT???

Lets see if I got this correctly...

You create a company.... You develop the next 'hot' product... All engines are firing away... You got your seed money sorted for now... Your developers barely sleep anymore...

And then, a big company comes and offers to buy you! (Yeah! Payday is near!)

So what happens then? You sit through the negotiations, trying to get as much as you can... Right??

WHILE doing this, do you:

SIMPLY PRAY THAT NOTHING BAD HAPPENS WITH THE NEGOTIATIONS? (i.e. these dorks agree paying me the mother-load...)


I am sorry for Bickel, but it seems to me that this is exactly what he did... Google, and any other company OR INDIVIDUAL in the world as a matter of fact, has the right to cancel any OFFER it has put on a negotiating table, for whatever reason it believes is right...

Bickel, or anyone else in his position, on the other hand, should have kept his focus on HIS product, HIS money, and HIS company...

Its a game of business, not a philanthropic charity Clint...

1 Oct 2008

More thinkers wanted

Finally... As more days pass from the G1 presentation, it seems that more and more writers realise the hidden value and potential of the Android, and excellent articles get published...

Rachel Hinman just published Can T-Mobile Become the Heroic Mobile Carrier We Need?

The article is not about the Android, but about T-Mobile and its chance to capitalize on Android... I couldn't agree more on her points... Spot-on... I can only hope that even more writers understand the true potential not only for T-Mobile, but for all the mobile industry... Sadly, all they care about is money, their stocks, and so on...

Once again, Rachel is simply spot-on in this article..