
IT ROCKS...
Here is a different spin.
Imagine you’re a housing developer.
You buy a few thousand acres of land and build a few thousand houses, condos, and apartments. While you’re at it you connect all units together with super high bandwidth fiber-optic lines. And, then you offer an incentive to all web developers, software engineers, educational content authors, scientists, and a boat load of media consumers to move into your high-tech neighborhood and develop software, services, and content to deliver and interact with over your network.
Sweet! You’re network and services exceed EVERYTHING outside of that network, bandwidth and content alike. Now, you decide to start selling that content to people outside of your development. The only way to do this is to tie into someone else’s network… oooo, say AT&T. They’ve got their own little neighborhood, and well, it is kinda sucking compared to yours, but o well, they’ve got millions of suckers paying out the wazoo for inferior service… sorry I digress…
so AT&T and you come to an agreement, if YOU pay AT&T your people can deliver data over their lines… at the same time AT&T’s people are already paying THEM for those very same lines. hmmmm… and YOU are depending on AT&T to upgrade their lines to make it so their customers can become your customers to.
Except, AT&T looks at how much money you are making with your excellent services and say… hey, we can NEVER make that with JUST an infrastructure… you need to pay us a percentage based on types of data. Sounds like a great deal right. No… not really. So, why not just tell AT&T to go >>>> themselves and run a line, or wireless connection straight to your new customers.
citizen.anon
very disagreed (especially on the dead money argument)
what's to be afraid? at this point, goog will never ever go down below 300, not with the rate at which they rack in cash. so the downside is completely protected.
& look at the positive side for potential mega upside:
1. recessionary environment is bad for grownup businesses but is even worse for startups, which can potentially delay google killer for another couple years due to this. (and make no mistake, search business requires massive amount of IT spendings which makes it even harder to enter)
2. maturing product cycle (or the business model itself) only means even higher FCF margin from here.
3. goog apps racks in almost 500M last 3Qs and it's obviously ready to eat msft's lunch (potential market ~10B). isn't this trend very obvious to everyone already?
4. android will bring in new type of targeted ad gradually accepted by most users. chrome will be new internet platform a few years from now (rest assure this one is strategically important, not just another goog fad that Eric will let go).
so the bottom line: we see a clear bottom at $300ish but numerous potentials for huge upside for years to come... so which way are you placing your bet & what other stocks at current environment can give you even more assurance?
and finally, one big problem w/ "No new products ready to pick up growth slack" argument. we are not talking about aapl/msft/hpq here... internet search is itself a trend (& necessity) not a choice. so in fact, as long as goog keeps staying on top of their own game, they will just grow & racking in piles of cashes for a very very long time --- no newer & flasher products needed to drive growth, which is like what aapl has been struggling to do lately.